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Moreover, the CB will desire to push rates near zero. In effect, the financial repression deployed by policymakers is self reinforcing. If this is correct, then we have designed a system which will ultimately collapse, and collapse spectacularly. The system will perpetuate itself in a non-market way far beyond the optimal point. Only when currency revulsion takes root will investors throw in the towel and abandon the bonds.
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Or is there another catalyst? So what could bring this ultimate collapse about? What is the catalyst? I suspect it will be contagion. An endogenous collapse is surely possible, but I believe it is more likely to be contagion from a smaller country one with lower credibililty which spreads to larger firms. I also suspect exchange rate dynamics to be an important element. When you run a current account deficit it may be difficult or impossible to bring long rates near zero. Thinking through the implications of your comment, the first world needs to learn a very expensive lesson.
Fiat currencies are dangerous and reckless not because they collapse, but because they delay, and thereby compound, the inevitable reckoning. One question: Could policy makers simply bypass the banking system and hand out money to the private sector, and create inflation in excess of bond yields? As far as I can tell, containing inflation is treated as an exercise left to the reader—in particular, the behavior of energy markets under such a regime would be difficult to predict. The idea of crediting individual accounts rather than borrowing seems attractive given the futility and injustice of the current arrangement with the banking system.
In practice, given such direct access to the money supply, the fiscal authorities would grow the size and scope of government until it reaches some hard and painful limit: history trumps theory here. Then, how is the decision carried out? To whom are additional dollars distributed, and is anything demanded in exchange?
If the number is to be reduced, from whom are dollars taken, and is anything given in return?
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Excellent post Ed. I got started with MMT a few months back and with your posts and others, I have a good grasp of it now. But, as I have thought more about MMT, I find a critical flaw in that it assumes that if you throw money at the problem in a fiat currency system with debt issued in its own currency , it can be solved esepcially in an economy with a lot of slack. My questions have been the things that you have already touched upon and questions that I have posted on Bill Blog and TPC blog beginning a couple of months back — what if the money is just taken and put into completely or mostly unproductive use?
Malinvestment, asset bubbles result. Sloth and decay will set in and the country will fail. Separate and distinct from the above, PPI shows some big price pressures building up — core crude prices, core intermediate prices are beginning to show some pretty big increases? In an economy with much slack, how does one account for these?
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Not quite, from what I understand. MMT is saying that if you have a functioning economy, which is like an engine, and you apply more currency, which is like the fuel to the engine, then you get more performance up to the point where the engine is running at its maximum ie: full employment. More fuel after that point and the engine overheats inflation. If you have a dis-functional economy, then applying more currency would be like pouring fuel on the floor — you would just get a big mess at best; but nothing more in the way of productive value.
If anyone has a better analogy, I would appreciate it. In the US and most developed countries, this situation is not the problem, generally. It does matter how the currency is issued. Another possibility is having an engine a functional economy and adding fuel to it more currency , but then you restrict its capacity for performance through nonsensical regulations, supply shocks, government takeover of your farms, etc. Then your engine gets flooded with fuel currency. The big players in the oil supply are OPEC and Russia — both of which have been known to restrict supply to get the prices they want.
Mike Norman mentions on his blog that one of the keys to understanding MMT is to get away from thinking of the money and focus on the capital, especially the human capital. After all, it was Adam Smith who is famous for pointing out that the real wealth of nations was not in the money, but in the goods and services it produces. I think some MMT apologists are saying that the current fiat currency paradigm actually offers governments policy choices that could be used to maximize the real wealth of the nation, but not if we limit ourselves by thinking about money as if it were still a commodity.
Of course, these are policy choices — governments could just as easily choose to be destructive too. One other point: MMT is descriptive. Meaning, if you live in the US, Australia, New Zealand, or any other country that is the sole issuer of its own currency and enforces taxation in that currency, then MMT describes how your economy operates right now. It is important to separate the descriptive theory from the policy opinions of some MMT apologists.
A person who argues in defense or justification of something, such as a doctrine, policy, or institution. In my opinion, most of it will be usurped along the way into unproductive uses such as asset bubbles. Understood — I lean towards your opinion as well, but it need not be that way. Most people want to produce and achieve; and as long as the currency is applied in such a way as to reward that inclination and consistently dis-incentivize cheating, fraud, and malice; then we could have very healthy growth in all senses of the term. A big part of the problem now is that the known fraud in the financial system is not being addressed, which is dis-incentivizing production and has contributed heavily in forming the asset bubbles of housing and the stock market.
Haris07, You are right. The problem of the Predator State is a big one and if the fiscal resources are not deployed effectively that creates a political problem. And this can eventually become an economic one if the legitimacy of the state degenerates to such a degree that you no longer have a functioning polity which enforces the ability to impose taxation. That happens, and you are on the way to Zimbabwe.
I appreciate this answer, though I think it needs to be developed more. Perhaps you could write an article on how the job guarantee proposal contributes to keeping politicians in check? To someone thinking along a gold-standard paradigm, MMT does sound like we are giving the government too much control and authority. Though, I still favor the right to bear arms for the populace as a last resort means to keep politicians in check. I enjoy reading your posts and have learnt quite a bit from them.
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Your point above is exactly what is needed, some efficient, non-bureaucratic way to channel those currencies to productive use by creating jobs. If this can be done, then, as you and others have said, there is no reason why a person who is willing and able to work productively should not and printing money should be used to enable that ALL THE TIME. My issue is that politicians and bureaucrats and other vested interests will usurp this function indeed they already control this function and use it to benefit a few and blow other bubbles.
A job guarantee program or tax credits for genuine work etc. Some amount of debt destruction must occur to prevent a boom bust cycle of asset bubbles and decay. It can be administered at the local and state level, although it has to be funded federally. Getting this as devolved as possible also seems to minimise the scope for political mischief. On the debt destruction, do you mean private debt destruction or public?
Tax cuts by definition facilitate private sector deleveraging. Pvt debt…. A lot of people, such as Bill Mitchell, have used the analogy of a buffer stock. Instead of fully deploying a buffer stock of wool or gold, you do it with people. Ya know, Ive seen this criticism trotted out more than once and I really dont think you are thinking this through quite enough.
If there is no govt debt being issued then there will be no low risk bonds to just collect from and sip scotch. So asset values will require that real work be done to maintain real value. A society that sits back and collects checks off asset bubbles seems impossible. Collecting checks and having nothing that has been produced to buy?? In fact I think you will see a tighter connection between work and compensation. As citizens become used to this, they just live off asset bubbles a la the home ATM from Wealth comes from a productive economy.
I disagree. I would argue that the reluctance to deploy fiscal policy effectively in a true job creation mode as opposed to doling out trillions in financial subsidies for bankers places the onus on monetary policy. The use of the home as a quasi-ATM machine is a classic illustration of this dynamic. You had a government which was running persistent budget surpluses, thereby draining private demand and income growth from the system, in turn forcing a greater reliance on private debt to sustain income and living standards.
https://linresssurcu.tk Home Monetary System Market discipline for fiscal imprudence and the term structure of interest rates. Monetary System. By Edward Harrison On May 17, Bootstrapping the yield curve When I was in business school, we learned about bootstrapping the yield curve. The statement that "govt can alter taxes to stabilize aggregate demand at full employment" should be understood as a metaphor for adjusting the deficit.
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I hope that helps explain some of the nuances I could not. Continue Reading. Edward Harrison posts comments. Prev Post The fall of the euro: a sign of weakness, but an opportunity for the European economy. You might also like More from author. Political Economy. Prev Next. Phil says 9 years ago. Edward Harrison says 9 years ago.